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International finance–“source one international”– (carry trade unwinds)

International Finance–“Source One International”– (Carry Trade Unwinds)..

“Source One International” analysts believe that the so-called “carry trade” in the US dollar has begun to unwind but urged clients to refrain from bailing out of stocks pending a possible stall in the currency’s rally in early 2010.

The firm believes that the rally may be due, in part, to fund managers and traders wishing to square their books and take profits off the table heading into the Christmas break and adds that the relatively mild sell off in equities and commodities may be a significant indicator to the strength of the dollar’s apparent renaissance.

Gold has sold off significantly since the dollar began its ascent going from $1225 to $1100 an ounce in less than two weeks but “Source One International” analysts suggest that it is too soon to speculate on a price target. Support at $1100 has held well with plenty of buyers being found.

“Source One International” apparently believes that gold may reach $1800 per ounce in 2010 as the global economy faces the threat of a double-dip recession and the potential for additional money printing by global central banks.

The firm also believes that the resilience of mining stocks to gold’s sell off is encouraging and urged clients to hold for instructions.
Gold stocks have rallied strongly over the last 3-6 months as gold has increased in value and, according to the “Source One International” analysts, remain an excellent play on the long term bull trend in the precious metal.

“Source One International”: World reminded of oil’s vulnerability to geo-political tensions.

“Source One International” analysts reminded its clients this month that in addition to the pressure from mounting demand from nations undergoing fragile economic recoveries, the price of oil remains highly vulnerable to tensions in the Middle East.

Sources close to the Asian-based investment boutique say that the latest client email apparently highlighted news that Iranian military forces had occupied an area around an Iraqi oil field and erected their national flag. The incident helped spur a significant rally in the price of oil which, at one point, bridged the $75 a barrel mark.

“Source One International” believes that the incident is likely to pass without major incident but reiterated its advice to clients to invest in selected oil producers and explorers for a leveraged play on the secular bull market in crude.

The “Source One International” email reportedly suggested that what it called the “Iran issue” was unlikely to fade in the months going forward given the recalcitrant stance of the Iranian leadership. It added that the strong recovery in the emerging markets combined with a US dollar in a long-term downtrend would continue to add to the upward pressure on oil and that this would inevitably culminate in a return to $100 a barrel oil prices.

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